Post All-Star Break Thoughts

59 games into the season, the Clippers are 39-20, which puts them on pace for around 54 wins.  Although the Vegas season win total before the season was 57, the injury bug has hit the Clippers more significantly than anyone expected.  Chris Paul, Matt Barnes, and J.J. Redick, arguably three of the five most important players on the roster, have missed significant chunks of games.  In light of these injuries, Clippers fans should be very happy with the team's current record.  The question now is, what factors will contribute to making or breaking the Clippers season going forward?

Small-Forward Production

Thus far, the team's small-forwards have a combined 9.9 PER, the only below-average position on the team.  A 9.9 PER is drastically below the average 15 PER, however, so this has been a major problem.  The primary reason for this is that Jared Dudley has been catastrophically disappointing.  Coming into the season, Dudley was a career 40% three-point shooter.  He is currently hitting threes at a 35.2% clip.  His FT attempts are less than half of his career average and his percentage on those free throws is down by around 12%.  Also down significantly are his FG%, assists, rebounds, and steals.  The only number that has gone up are his personal fouls.  Long story short, for whatever reason (poor conditioning coming into the season?, knee tendinitis?), Dudley sucks.

This would not be such a big problem if Matt Barnes were playing like himself.  Unfortunately, his FG% is nearly a career low.  He currently has a 9.8 PER.  The defensive energy and production seem to be unaffected, however.  And there is more good news, Barnes has been his usual dependable self in the month of February.  He is averaging 11 points  on 48.2% FGs, 41.3% on 4.6 3PT attempts per game.  In order for the Clippers to make a legitimate run at the Western Conference Finals, Barnes needs to perform closer to February's production than his awful first half of the season.  

Addition of Big Baby
The consensus among NBA fans for the past two seasons is that a competent backup big has been the Clippers' most glaring need.  Last year, the two-headed monster of Ryan Hollins (11.3 PER) and Ronny Turiaf (9.37 PER) left a lot to be desired.  This year, the only true backup big to get significant playing time has been Hollins (10 PER) and he has continued to be a foul machine with terrible hands, zero basketball IQ, and an inexplicable inability to grab rebounds.  Glen Davis on the other hand, as Zach Lowe put in a recent piece on Grantland, "is a solid defender who moves his feet well and is borderline unmovable in the post."  He has experience in the Doc Rivers-Tom Thibodeau defensive system so he should be ready to contribute right off the bat.

Goals for Rest of Season

1. Get Healthy

Health will be a huge factor in the Clippers' attempt to make a deep playoff run.  As it stands, everyone on the team is now relatively healthy except for J.J. Redick.  Redick is probably the fourth most important player on this team, behind the "Big Three."  He is the team's only reliable three-point shooter and turns a very good offense into an elite one.  Despite his athletic deficiencies defensively, he makes up for it with relentless energy and basketball IQ.  He is lightyears ahead of Jamal Crawford in this area.  Redick's presence also indirectly bolsters the bench by allowing Crawford to slot into his sixth man role.

2. Get at least the "True" 4 Seed

The race for home court advantage in the first round will be one of the more intriguing story-lines in the final portion of the season.  While the Clippers are guaranteed at least the 4 seed if they win the Pacific Division, this could be a meaningless 4 seed.  This is because if the Clippers have a worse record than the 5 seed, then they will not have home court advantage in the series.  The main competition for this "true" 4 seed is the Houston Rockets and the Portland Trailblazers.  Currently, the Clippers are 1/2 game back of these two teams and need to jump one of them in the standings to get homecourt advantage in round one.  The good news is that the Clippers have a higher percentage of home games left compared to the Rockets and Blazers, but this race could very well come down to the last week of the season.

Numbers Never Lie: Clippers Edition

If you haven't seen the show "Numbers Never Lie" on ESPN2, consider yourself lucky.  It's a terrible show that poses completely subjective questions and pretends as if the statistics they provide as answers somehow give the viewer a definitive answer.  There is very little thought-provoking statistical analysis for a show that is supposedly based on numbers.  So here at D-League MVP, we are going to do our own version of "Numbers Never Lie" that doesn't totally suck.  

Has Blake Griffin really improved his jump shot?

Numbers say: Yes

40.5% on catch and shoot FGs (ranks 56 out of 116 players who shoot more than 3 such FGA per game). 

The sample size is very small and Griffin still shoots his jumper on his way down, so it would be wise to be skeptical of Griffin’s sudden shooting prowess.  However, his numbers so far are very respectable, especially for a power forward.  He is ahead of players such as Dirk Nowitzki, Carmelo Anthony, and James Harden.  This is something D-League MVP will keep an eye on throughout the season.

Has DeAndre Jordan made the leap?

Numbers say: Yes and No

The yes:

% of rebounds per chance: 77.5 (2^nd in NBA among 196 players with 5+ rebound chances per game)

Offensive rebounds per game: 4.9 (1^st in NBA)

Minutes per game: 36.9 (14^th in NBA)

DeAndre Jordan is an efficient player and certainly a net positive for the Clippers.  However, Vinny Del Negro felt that he could not play in the fourth quarter and thus he only played 24.5 minutes per game last season.  This limited the level of impact DeAndre could have.  Rivers has shown that despite the hack-a-DeAndre tactic, he can still player 35+ minutes per game and, therefore, have a more positive effect on the Clippers’ chances of winning.  The numbers above also show that DeAndre has been an incredible rebounder so far this season. 

The no:

Opponent FG% at rim: 61.3 (79^th out of 86 players who defended 4+ shots at the rim per game)

Defensive points per 100 possessions while on the floor: 109

Defensively, DeAndre is supposed to be the anchor.  With the Clippers close to the bottom of the league on defense, it is fair to give him much of the blame.  There are way too many breakdowns defensively so far this season where no bigs rotate to stop a driving perimeter player.  DeAndre also has the bad habit of wasting a weak foul when he is late on his rotation leading to three-point play opportunities.  The high opponent field percentage at the rim is likely in part inflated by the fact that he has not been in the right position to effectively challenge opposing shots. 

Is BJ Mullens is worthless?

Numbers say: Yes

Career Three-Point FG%: 29.5

Defensive points per 100 possessions while on the floor: 122

Byron “don’t call me BJ” Mullens is a supposedly a stretch 5.  The only problem is that he doesn’t stretch the floor and can’t defend like a 5.  The three-point percentage is atrocious and the fact that any coach lets him keep shooting them is unfathomable to me.  The Clippers’ defensive rating while he is on the floor is 17 more points per 100 possessions than they allow overall.

Quick Thoughts on Clippers' Start

Eight games into the NBA season, the Clippers have navigated a fairly difficult early schedule about as one would expect, accumulating a 5-3 record.  Overall, the offense has looked even better than last year.  The Clippers are currently second in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 109 points per 100 possessions.  Chris Paul has been in attack mode more often than usual early in the season, Jamal Crawford is off to a red hot start much like last season, JJ Redick is scoring efficiently, and DeAndre Jordan is leading the NBA in offensive rebounding.  Blake Griffin is off to a terrific start as well, putting up 22.1 PPG on 57% shooting.  The constant nitpicking by members of the national media of Blake’s game (particularly his offensive game) actually make him one of the more underrated players in the NBA.  So that’s the good news….

But apparently, there is this other half of the game called defense.  Somebody should alert the Clippers to this fact.  The Clippers are 28^th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 106 points per 100 possessions.  While I will not pretend to have any expert insight into the defensive schemes that Doc Rivers is implementing, the most logical explanation for the Clippers' struggles is a learning curve.  This team was middle of the pack defensively last year and the personnel is no worse this season.  As the team learns to Rivers’ principles and system, I would expect them to rise to the middle of the pack or perhaps a bit better.

Three Things to Look Out for this Clippers Season

1. DeAndre Jordan's Improvement

Stop me if you have heard this one before, but this time it is for real...maybe.  Judging off of Doc Rivers' praise, Shaquille Olajuwon is in store for an incredible season.  Whoops, did I get that name right?  I meant DeAndre Jordan.  In all seriousness, Jordan will be a more impactful player for the Clippers in 2013-14.  In each of the last four seasons, Jordan's PER has improved, reaching a very respectable 17.21 last season.  Gaining another year of experience and coming under the tutelage of Doc Rivers will likely result in Jordan becoming an improved defender.  However, even if Jordan does not improve at all, he will still be a much better player for the Clippers this season.  The reason for this is that his 17.21 PER was only utilized for 24.5 mpg last season.  Rivers has already made it clear that Jordan will be part of a "big three" along with Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, so expect Jordan's minutes to go way up.  

Vinny Del Taco refused to play Jordan in the fourth quarter solely because of his inability to hit free throws.  Many of the pundits in the basketball world all seemed to agree that "you can't play this guy down the stretch" until he improves at the free throw line.  While the inability to hit free throws is certainly a liability late in games, there is precedent for this type of player being a crucial cog in closing line-ups.  Remember Ben Wallace? He played 38 mpg on the 2004 Champion Detroit Pistons while providing very little offensively and shooting sub-50% at the line.  Dennis Rodman shot below 55% during his successful tenure with the Bulls.  While these players obviously brought a lot more to the table than Jordan does at this point, the fact remains that Jordan is an efficient player despite his free throw woes.  

2. Floor-spacing Shooters

The Clippers offseason trade of Eric Bledsoe and Caron Butler for J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley was a stoke of genius.  While Bledsoe is a very intriguing piece, he was sitting behind the best point guard in the league and his lack of perimeter shooting prevented him from being a viable option at the two-guard.  A trade was inevitable and the Clippers turned one of its bigger weaknesses in perimeter shooting into a bona fide strength.  Dudley and Redick are career 40.5% and 39% 3-point shooters, respectively (for frame of reference, Ray Allen is a career 40.1% 3-point shooter).  

Not only does these wings' shooting prowess allow the Clippers to take further advantage of one of the most efficient shots in basketball, but it will also spread the floor for Chris Paul and Blake Griffin to navigate the interior.  Chris Paul will have plenty of room to drive into the lane and if the wing defenders collapse, he will find Redick or Dudley for trey.  Additionally, Griffin will be able to utilize the open space to make his awkward looking post moves that are surprisingly efficient.  If the defenders collapse, Griffin's third-highest assist rate among power forwards who played 20+ mpg last year show that he is an adept passer.  

3. Closing Line-up

One intriguing question about this roster is who will be on the floor in the last five minutes of the game?  Paul will obviously be the point guard, Redick will almost certainly be the shooting guard, and Griffin will be one of the bigs.  After that, the situation is unclear.  Last season, Jamal Crawford often played in the backcourt to close games.  The addition of Redick's ballhandling and scoring ability would seem to take away the need to put one of the worst defenders in the NBA on the floor simply to add some scoring punch.  Additionally, it is difficult to imagine a defensive-minded coach like Doc Rivers putting his faith in a guy like Crawford in crunch time.  

There could be a very interesting battle for late-game minutes between Jared Dudley and Matt Barnes at small forward.  Dudley is the better shooter and, by all accounts, a solid team defender.  Barnes is merely an average shooter but is a better slasher, rebounder, and defender.  While the match-ups may dictate which player gets the nod, Barnes seems to be the more likely choice here because of his ablility to defend the opponent's top perimeter scorer. 

While against certain teams, a small-ball line-up including both Barnes and Dudley could be utilized at the end of games, in most situations a true center will need to be in the game.  For the reasons discussed earlier, DeAndre Jordan will have every opportunity to be the man in the middle.